This is not related to machine learning, but on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 we will make an exception. If you think about anything related to US foreign policy in the 21st century, you very quickly get to 9/11. Why did it happen? To learn why, we’ll go back to 1941 for a moment.
How USA joined the WWII
For the United States, the WWII started when Japan attacked the US naval base in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. The Japanese sank a few old battleships, but strategically, they had no success. Particularly, it so happened there were no American aircraft carriers in the base*, and the carriers were the ships that mattered. The main thing the attack achieved was that the US joined the war.
* USS Lexington left the base on December 5. USS Enterprise was due to come back to the base on December 6 but was delayed, so she was still at sea roughly 200 nautical miles west of Oahu at the time of the attack. Both ships returned to Pearl Harbor shortly afterward (Enterprise on December 8, Lexington on December 13 after an unsuccessful search for the Japanese fleet).
Here’s an analogy for what happened. A guy went up to a horse and poked it with a long, sharp needle. It was painful for a horse, but the end result was that the horse kicked the guy, who ended up in a hospital. Obviously Japan was the guy with the needle and the US was the horse. The war ended with two nuclear bombs and Japan’s unconditional surrender.
From the point of view of people who wanted the US to join the war, the attack was a blessing in disguise. It’s all good if there’s an enemy to attack you, but what if there isn’t?
How Putin became the strong man of Russia
In September 1999, someone bombed apartment buildings in Russia. Over a period of about two weeks, over 300 people died and many more got hurt. It happened just weeks after Vladimir Putin became prime minister. Putin was then a relatively unknown former KGB officer and more recently, the FSB* chief. He blamed Chechen terrorists for the bombings and went to war with Chechnya. Putin’s hard stance made him popular among Russians and paved the way for him to become the ruler of the country, which he has remained since.
* KGB, which worked both home and abroad, split into FSB, the domestic security beareau, and SVR, the foreign intelligence.
There is some evidence that FSB performed the bombings. In Ryazan, the regular police caught some guys with explosives. These guys turned out to be FSB officers. Another FSB officer, Alexander Litvinenko, defected to the UK and wrote a book on the events, titled Blowing up Russia. For this, he was later poisoned by his former work colleagues and died.
How Bush became the strong man of America
Someone had paid attention to what happened in Russia. In September 2000, a neoconservative think tank called the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) published a report titled Rebuilding America’s Defenses. The report noted that military transformation would likely be slow ”absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event - like a new Pearl Harbor”.
It wasn’t just any think tank. Of the 25 people who signed PNAC’s founding statement of principles, 10 went on to serve in the administration of George W. Bush, including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz, people now infamous for the wars they waged.
Shortly after the report, George Bush Jr became the president after the closest (and strongly contested) US presidential election in history. Bush started his term in 2001 with a 50-60% approval rating. In September 2001, it reached 90%.
After the painful event happened, the nation rallied behind the leader, and the USA went to war, which wrecked the Middle East for decades. Europe paid the bill for the ensuing migrant crisis. Thanks, Bush. Thanks, Obama.
Who benefits?
Larry Silverstein and his family pose for a photo after receiving the keys to 7 World Trade Center in 2001. Source: FOXBusiness
Since ancient Roman times, if you want to find out who was behind an event or a crime, you ask cui bono - “who benefits?” We know of the Republican war hawks. Who else?
In July 2001, two short months before 9/11, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey leased the WTC buildings to a private company, Silverstein Properties. Larry Silverstein, who apparently is a friend of Benjamin Netanyahu and would chat with him on the phone weekly, naturally insured the complex, which would later allow him to collect $4.5 billion in damages.
The Twin Towers used to be a landmark of New York, and a place where people would conduct business. Larry Silverstein himself used to have his breakfast every day in a restaurant in the North Tower. On 9/11, he skipped it. Turns out that he was not alone in being lucky. A bunch of important people decided to not show up on that day, including Howard Lutnick, now Trump’s secretary of commerce.
If you search for important or well-known people who died in the Towers, very few come up. There were a few media and business figures, but on the planes.
And what did Netanyahu, Silverstein’s friend, have to say about the event?
According to the New York Times of September 12, 2001, questioned that very evening about what the attack meant for US-Israel relations, Netanyahu responded: Its very good. He then corrected himself: Well, not very good, but it will generate immediate sympathy.
Generate sympathy it sure did. So did October 7th.
How Israel went all-in on the Gaza genocide
By now, you know the pattern:
- a painful event occurs
- the country unites behind the leader
- the country goes to war
On October 7, 2023, a painful event happened for Israel. The country united in the yearning for revenge and went to torment Palestinians in Gaza and in the occupied territories on a scale larger than before.
Three years later, just a few days before the 25th anniversary of 9/11, an Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, reported that Netanyahu had been warned that something was coming, but chose to ignore the warnings.
The takeaway
From then to now, from there to here, history rhymes, and there are people who make it rhyme in specific ways, sometimes criminal. You know how it goes: if you kill one man, you go to prison. If you kill five, you are a serial killer. If you kill five thousand, or five million, you are a great leader.