Back in October 2024 we posted about the US presidential election probabilities and if someone took the gamble, it backfired. To make up for it, here’s a new tip.

In May Poles elect a new president. According to polls, the leading candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski (pronounced Tshaskovsky), has 36% support, while the second candidate has 22%. We estimate that Trzaskowski will win with about 95% probability. The remaining 5% accounts for any possible emergencies.

At least one prediction market is trading shares valued at one dollar for that outcome at 69 cents. That represents a 45% return in two months.

If Trzaskowski does not get elected, we promise not to post any more prediction tips.